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Geopolitical Tensions Compromise the Future of Latin America's Energy Sector
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If Latin America's energy consumption hikes a conservative 60% over 20 years, if the energy cost suffer a minor increase and if the energy mix is kept clean, the continent shall: I. Keep the same Hydroelectric power share (28%); II. Hardly noticeable decrease today's oil share of 44.7%; III. Keep the 22.7% Natural Gas share; IV. Ideally rise its Nuclear share of 0.9%; IV. Radically reduce it's coal and traditional biomass share and, finally, (V.) amplify its NECR share to up to 15% of its energy mix. Questioning whether or not such measures should be implemented is not the problem anymore. For the world's sake, they must. But considering South America's current geopolitical and internal pressures, how can they do that?



Ramifications of the problem (South America's current Geopolitical scenario):



  •  
    • Hole left by foreign enterprises that had large investments in Venezuela’s oil industry and bailed out after the country's current crisis

    • Can the US deal with Venezuelan and Mexican ever-lowering oil supply?

    • Tensions between Brazil and Venezuela: They were intensified after the nationalization of gas in Bolivia in 2006 and Petrobras-PDVSA partnership to establish a heavy-crude refinery in Pernambuco, Brazil

    • Central America and Caribbean unstable energy sector brought the attention of the long established powers, such as USA, Mexico and Venezuela, as well as of a new one, Brazil

    • Long-established animosity between Brazil and Argentina over Nuclear power. Specially now when Venezuela might enter the game with Iranian or Russian technology

    • After Petrobras' expansions in Venezuela, Colombia, Ecuador, Argentina and the strains with Bolivia's gas industry, is Brazil positioning itself as the sole leader in the continent?

 

Why is this problem unsolvable?

More than scientific, this a geopolitical and intricate situation. Managing complexity is a key starting point. How can such a region with so many distinguished interests and needs involved be unified in order to reach its so long-needed balance in its Energy Sector? What measures should be put forth in order to remarkably decrease coal and traditional biomass usage and How can the current political tensions be overcome? Is Brazil imposing itself onto its neighboring countries?

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