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Climate Change... Science, Perception and Politics

One of the perks of my job is that I get to attend a lot of talks on carbon management and climate change.  After a while you come to expect run-of-the-mill talks with pretty similar ideas and calls to action, but today I attended a talk that was a little different.  It was put on by the Pembina Institute and the Norwegian Embassy of Canada and featured Dr. Knut Alfsen from the Centre for International Climate and Environmental Research – Oslo (CICERO). Dr. Alfsen’s talk reframed some of the very difficulties we as society face when it comes to climate change and more importantly remotivated me to continue working towards my long term goals for Student Energy (ISES) and my career in the climate field.  

 

So, with that build up, I wanted to present three of the most striking ideas (in my opinion that is) that Dr. Alfsen asserted today.  I cannot take any credit for these as they came directly from his presentation but I thought they were very profound and deserved to be shared with the Student Energy community!   

 

The climate science is in… trust it!  

 

This idea is a bit of a divergence from a previous post “I Just Met a Climate Change Denier” where I argued that whether you believe in climate change or not it is important that we take action to reach a sustainable future. But Dr. Alfsen asserts that there is pretty much no reason to doubt climate change at this point.  The science has been highly scrutinized and the answers are all the same.    

 

So how does he justify this assertion?  Well, there was one gentleman in the audience who flat out asked “as a forecaster for oil and gas markets, I can barely incorporate 10-15 variables and trust that my prediction will be accurate.  Can we really believe that a climate model that has hundreds of variables could ever be accurate?” Dr. Alfsen quite bluntly answered, “YES!” You can believe the models because there is one fundamental difference between these models and other predictions we do. They are based on physical properties of the environment that are known to be true, not social predictions or guesses.  He did say that cloud formation is an exception to this rule (as it is very difficult to model and predict) but all other variables are based on physical science, chemistry and biology, and the way we know reactions to occur.  This makes them substantially more accurate.  As I have said time and time again, I am not a scientist so I am not going to try and weigh in on the actual science but I do believe that respected scientists with years of research experience should be listened to when they say there is a problem; especially when they are this confident.    

 

Perception is easily swayed.  

 

Scientific conclusions about climate and society’s perception of climate change are two very different things.  It is a fact that people often try and justify doing things that may be detrimental to them simply because they do not want their current way of life inconvenienced or threatened.  “When what we do and what we ought to do don’t mesh we find ways to justify our actions.”  He used the example of smoking; even though one may know it is harmful to health, they often find themselves making excuses to justify the behaviour.  “My mother smoked every day and lived until she was 80.” “I don’t smoke that often, it can’t have that big of an effect.” etc.  We, as society, do this constantly when it comes to climate change.  Even though we know that there are potential consequences we continue to make excuses for non-action so that we don’t have to disrupt our easy ways of life.    

 

Democracy is not conducive to climate change action  

 

Dr. Alfsen prefaced his talk by saying that he is a “pessimist” What he meant by that is that he thinks that our current systems are not set up to reduce emissions at the level necessary.  Much of his talk compared Alberta, Norway and China for the different approaches that can be taken to battling climate change.  Norway has taken a very aggressive albeit unrealistic approach to reducing emissions – targets being carbon neutral by 2030 even though it has had a plateau of emissions levels for the last two decades.   They have tried to implement different mechanisms that have had varying levels of success. Most interestingly, Knut showed how the CO2 price in Norway has fluctuated over the years due to simply politics (ie rising the price to pay for additional kindergartens, lowering the price in response to truck driver protests, etc.) Alberta has set modest targets but likely will still not even make those due completely to lack of political will.  And China has set very stringent targets and will most likely reach them simply because of the nature of their command and control system – those who do not meet prescribed targets are fired and therefore find any way to meet them.    

 

This brings on a stark and concerning reality, could it be that democracies are not equipped to tackle climate change?  That is precisely what Dr. Alfsen was getting at; that there is a trade off between freedom and doing what is best for the environment.  And this is why he is pessimistic, because he doesn’t want to see the world have to shift away from freedom in order to save the planet.  And that is where there is a need for innovation.  There has got to be a way to reach a balance and bring our free, progressive countries to low carbon paths.  We can do it!  We just need big ideas, belief and will!  

 

I am putting Dr. Alfsen on the ISES 2013 potential speaker list because he was truly an inspiration and there is no way that this blog post did his talk justice.  He is realistic, balanced and future-minded; he embodies what Student Energy is all about and we need more people like him willing to speak out for the sake of our sustainable future!

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